From S&P's latest Economic Outlook for the Asia-Pacific.
- growth is easing in the region as export demand softens in line with an expected slowdown among major global economies
- "However the recovery in domestic demand from COVID is largely intact, so overall growth has softened only modestly,"
- "This is especially so in Australia, India, Japan, Indonesia and the Philippines where growth is more domestic demand-oriented."
- Inflation has risen across the region, largely driven by higher energy and commodity prices but not by as much as in the US and Europe.
On Australia more specifically:
- has cut its Australia 2022 growth forecast to 3.6% (from 4% previously)
- 2023 projection is 2.8% (2.7% prior forecast)
- expects inflation to average 5% in Australia this year, back to 3% in 2023 & 2.5% in 2024
S&P's outlook for RBA cash rate policy:
- expects further hikes to 1.75% this year
- 2.5% in 2023
- 2.75% in 2024
- cut to 2.5% in 2025.
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From the RBA website, the cash rate target after a hike in May and then again this month. The next meeting is on July 5, another hike is baked in. Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Lowe tells us the debate amongst the board members is between a 0.25 and 0.5 % cash rate rise.
