A note from TD assessing the implications of the expected Trump tariffs and what it means for EUR/USD:
- Trump’s tariffs will have a significant impact on the eurozone economy (not a positive one!)
- euro zone has limited engines of growth
- economic policy uncertainty running high across Europe
- ECB is expected to cut interest rate more than the Federal Reserve does
- market could price in further eurozone-U.S. monetary policy divergence
TD forecast 1.01 for EUR/USD in Q2 2025.
