I posted earlier on the likelihood of 145 being the trigger for Bank of Japan USD/JPY intervention:
- BNP Paribas say Japanese government's 'line in the sand' for USDJPY is around 145
- Another forecast for USD/JPY intervention at 'line in the sand' of 145
In September last year I posted a heads up on the language to watch out for:
What you want to be listening out for is more specific, and it'll go very much like this, key phrases to be aware of:
- we do not want to see one-sided moves in FX
- we do not want to see excessive moves in FX
- FX movement is not reflecting fundamentals
- we will not tolerate speculative movement
- The Ministry of Finance will combat excessive moves
And followed up with:
there are four stages of language before an actual intervention occurs.
- Stage 1: Excessive and disorderly movement in exchange rates is undesirable.
- Stage 2: We will closely monitor movements in exchange rates.
- Stage 3: We will take determined actions if necessary.
- Stage 4. We have just carried out an intervention (on the implementation)
Add in a little more now, this summary via HSBC:
“We will look out for words like
- ‘sense of urgency’,
- ‘excessive’,
- ‘one-sided’,
- ‘ready to act’,
coming from more speakers including Kanda or even Prime Minister [Fumio] Kishida.”
