ECB's Lane: If there is a recession underway, it is at the mild end

ECBs Lane:

• If there is a recession underway, it is at the "mild end"
• More resilence than many might expect in the European economy
• Labor market momentum a sign that Europe is not seen facing a big contraction
• Expect a fairly big drop in inflation Inflation Inflation is defined as a quantitative measure of the rate in which the average price level of goods and services in an economy or country increases over a period of time. It is the rise in the general level of prices where a given currency effectively buys less than it did in prior periods.In terms of assessing the strength or currencies, and by extension foreign exchange, inflation or measures of it are extremely influential. Inflation stems from the overall creation of money. This money is m Inflation is defined as a quantitative measure of the rate in which the average price level of goods and services in an economy or country increases over a period of time. It is the rise in the general level of prices where a given currency effectively buys less than it did in prior periods.In terms of assessing the strength or currencies, and by extension foreign exchange, inflation or measures of it are extremely influential. Inflation stems from the overall creation of money. This money is m Read this Term this year
• If easing of energy prices persist, it should feed into less pressure on food and core inflation
• Seen a sizeable decline in real wages
• Ongoing wage negotiations will begin to make up for that, could put upward pressure on prices in coming years.
• Policy decisions will be data dependent, but any type of simulation shows rates need to be above 2%

The US and Canada jobs reports this morning help to paint the same employment picture in each country. How can you have a recession with Unemployment rates near historic low levels.

The confusing part of it is at the same time that there are the headlines of layoffs especially at the big cap, the overall picture is still strong.