It's an odd time for a Fed speech to cross so I wonder if the market is slow to pick up on the comments from Waller.
"Recent data indicate we haven't made as much progress as thought," he said and that the Fed may need to hike above the 'central tendency' of 5.1-5.4% in the dot plot.
There market is currently pricing a top at 5.44% so some chance of going to a 5.50-5.75% range is already baked in but these are certainly the strongest nod to it yet. Waller though did argue that the data are saying the economy is running hotter and that last month's data releases 'may be a blip' so he puts the focus back on data and that sets up tomorrow's ISM services data and next Friday's non-farm payrolls data.
It also leaves the Fed in a bit of a jam.
On one hand, they want to be data dependent and move in 25 bps increments. On the other, the new dot plot is due on March 22 and forecasts many months out. You can't guide markets and be data dependent at the same time. Of course, the dots aren't any kind of promise but they certainly introduce some kind of certainty that that Fed doesn't seem to want to provide.
I would have expected comments like this to provoke some US dollar strength and risk aversion but that's not unfolding, or at least not yet. For me, I'll be looking for a similar line of thinking from Powell next Wednesday in his Congressional appearance or for some kind of push back.
Previously though, Waller has at times signalled a more-hawkish shift for the broader FOMC so additional caution in warranted.
