I think we got a preview of what Powell will say today in comments from Daly and Williams yesterday:
Daly: It's still too early to know if Fed is done hiking rates
Williams: We are at or near the peak of interest rate target
Another line from Daly that might show up is: 'we should take our time now and remain vigilant' and he will also likely highlight that the most recent data has been encouraging.
The tail risk for me is that he's more hawkish, which could upend the mode in today's market. Right now, Fed funds are pricing in 120 bps in easing next year and 32 bps of easing by May, including a 63% chance of a March cut.
Watch him live here:
