HSBC analysts have noted that the US dollar’s recent movements are closely mirroring its behaviour eight years ago after Trump’s initial presidential election victory.
Following the 2016 election, the dollar experienced a sharp rise, paused briefly, and then regained strength in early 2017.
The analysts suggest the current rally appears to be on a similar path, with the dollar’s recent pause potentially ending soon. This is partly due to expectations that the Federal Reserve may adopt a more cautious approach to cutting interest rates compared to other central banks.
- “The second driver of renewed dollar strength is likely to be associated with U.S. policy uncertainty, in particular potential tariff risks.”
