Torsten Sløk is Apollo Chief Economist. In a note title "The Economy Is Re-Accelerating" Sløk notes the rising probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike in 2025:
- employment report came in stronger than expected
- weekly same-store retail sales were better than expected
- Prices Paid for ISM Services came in higher than expected
- bottom line is that momentum in the economy is strong
- the narrative that monetary policy is restrictive is wrong
- Combined with higher animal spirits and the latest Atlanta Fed GDP estimate at 2.7%, we see a 40% probability that the Fed will hike rates in 2025
Slok provides a barrage of graphs on economic strength to support his view, link here.
For example:
