You'll recall that back in June markets were rocked by a brutal CPI report.
The FOMC was meeting the following week.
The shockingly high inflation print made the expected, and very well signalled, 50bp hike at that meeting seem paltry and insufficient. A 75bp rate hike seemed to be required, at the minimum.
The Fed was in its pre-meeting meeting 'blackout' period though and officials at the bank do like to prepare markets for what to expect when rate hikes are on the agenda. Being in the blackout period meant the Fed could not signal it had heeded the CPI data and wanted to now hike by 75bp.
Hence, a leak was made. The chosen messenger to receive the leak was a journalist at the Wall Street Journal, Nick Timiraos. He wrote an article indicating markets should now expect 75bps.
The 75bp hike was duly delivered days later from the FOMC. The market now crowns Timiraos as a Fed-watcher to watch for insider signalling.
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OK, after that preamble.
The next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is on July 26-27.
Timiraos has a piece up in the WSJ over the weekend, tipping +75bp at the July meeting. There had been plenty of speculation last week about a +100bp rate hike following another shockingly high CPI report. Such speculation was watered down by data (notably the within-range retail sales result) later that week that indicated perhaps +75bp was more appropriate. Timiraos says +75bp it is.
Federal Reserve officials have signaled they are likely to raise interest rates by 0.75 percentage point later this month, for the second straight meeting, as part of an aggressive effort to combat high inflation.
Policy makers left the door open to a larger, full-percentage-point increase at the July 26-27 gathering. But some of them simultaneously poured cold water on the idea in recent interviews and public comments ahead of their premeeting quiet period, which began Saturday.
Link to the Timiraos piece, here (Wall Street Journal is gated)
