What exactly is Services CPI ex Rent and Shelter doing?

SF Fed President Daly said that she is watching the services CPI ex housing for signs of inflation Inflation Inflation is defined as a quantitative measure of the rate in which the average price level of goods and services in an economy or country increases over a period of time. It is the rise in the general level of prices where a given currency effectively buys less than it did in prior periods.In terms of assessing the strength or currencies, and by extension foreign exchange, inflation or measures of it are extremely influential. Inflation stems from the overall creation of money. This money is m Inflation is defined as a quantitative measure of the rate in which the average price level of goods and services in an economy or country increases over a period of time. It is the rise in the general level of prices where a given currency effectively buys less than it did in prior periods.In terms of assessing the strength or currencies, and by extension foreign exchange, inflation or measures of it are extremely influential. Inflation stems from the overall creation of money. This money is m Read this Term coming lower.

As a result, I looked at the the St. Louis Fed statistics website (FRED) and downloaded the data for the CPI YoY and the CPI Services ex Rent and Shelter to see exactly what each has done.

The headline CPI has moved down from a high in June 2022 at 9.1%. It moved to 7.1% last month.

For the Service CPI ex rent and shelter (which I assume is the housing she speaks of), it peaked 3 months later in September at 8.2% and is down to 7.3% currently.

Indeed the CPI services ex housing is lagging by three months. The index continued to move higher in August and September (it was near unchanged in July), when the headline CPI was starting its move to the downside. However, it DOES HAVE two straight months of declines which will be eyed on Thursday to see if the trend continues.

At times it seems the Fed is stuck on their playbook and will find something to complain about. Admittedly services inflation is a key component of inflation and there is a lag, but the good news is it has started to wander lower.