What's priced in for the BOC rate decision

The next big central bank decision is from the Bank of Canada at 10 am ET on Wednesday. The economist consensus is for a 50 bps hike but the market is putting just a 27% likelihood on that with the remainder at 25 bps. That will put the BOC at 4.00% or 4.25%, with the latter seen as the top for now.

“The announcement feels exceptionally uncertain, a fitting end to a year that has been full of surprises,” Andrew Kelvin, TD chief Canada strategist, wrote in a note.

CIBC argues that it doesn't really matter whether the Bank of Canada does 50 bps now and calls a halt to hikes or does 25 bps now and 25 bps in January then pauses. The real question is whether the terminal top and there's some certainty around that.

CAD CAD The Canadian dollar (CAD) is the official currency of Canada and at the time of writing is the fifth most-held reserve currency in the world behind only the US dollar, euro, Japanese yen, and British pound.The CAD is commonly referred to as the Loonie by forex analysts and traders. At the time of writing, the CAD accounts for 2% of all global currency reserves.Its appeal is strong among central banking authorities given Canada’s economic strength, sovereignty, and historic stability.Originally i The Canadian dollar (CAD) is the official currency of Canada and at the time of writing is the fifth most-held reserve currency in the world behind only the US dollar, euro, Japanese yen, and British pound.The CAD is commonly referred to as the Loonie by forex analysts and traders. At the time of writing, the CAD accounts for 2% of all global currency reserves.Its appeal is strong among central banking authorities given Canada’s economic strength, sovereignty, and historic stability.Originally i Read this Term is trading at the lowest since Nov 3 ahead of the decision, largely due to oil and natural gas price declines.