Brexit vs US-China trade war

GBPGD is not a pair I often trade, but there is a divergence setting up here which lends itself to further GBPSGD downside on a swing trade.

GBP downside on UK-EU trade concerns

There have been a slew of negative comments from the Bank of England recently. Ireland is warning that the EU won't be rushed on a trade deal.

SGD upside on global trade

If we have the US-China phase 1 trade deal signed then we can expect some more upside for the SGD on a more settled condition for global trade

GBPSGD pair on the daily chart

Brexit vs US-China trade war

What would invalidate this outlook?

Either progress for UK-EU trade or a break down in the US-China trade 1 deal this week.