What to expect from the US jobs report today
This could be one of the more straightforward reports in the sense that a poor reading will cast some doubts about the labour market recovery, reaffirming fears from the ADP employment data on Wednesday, and keep a drag on the dollar.
On the flip side, a stronger reading will keep taper expectations in-check and reaffirm the timeline which the market is starting to acclimatise to currently.
After having seen the market reaction to the ADP miss earlier in the week, I would argue that on the balance of things, a more neutral report could even help to keep the dollar somewhat supported into the weekend and things aren't as "bad" as feared.
The devil will still be in the details, so be sure to take that into account as well when interpreting how the market might react once the dust settles later today.
In any case, I'd argue that US equities may end up being the winner regardless of the outcome as dip buyers continue to show unnerving appetite over the past few weeks.
Here's a neat summary post by our good friend, Anthony Barton (@ABartonMacro), on what the "big boys" are expecting going into the release later:
