This from ANZ's latest weekly FX outlook, on the Australian dollar. Its a good summary:
AUD lacks a catalyst for a sustained move higher
- domestic data flow is uninspiring from an RBA rate hike perspective, even more so after the disappointing Q2 CPI
- global environment will continue to dominate moves
- With a number of positive events, like China's stimulus, failing to boost the AUD materially, the environment is increasingly challenging. Domestic policy developments are also weighing on the Aussie.
ANZ cite their fair value for the currency at 0.7 against the USD
For the week they describe their bias as mildly bearish
- For the month, bearish
