Via Reuters polling, outlooks for inflation:

  • FY 2021 core CPI seen at 0.0% The previous poll in October was also showing 0.0% expected)
  • FY 2022 +0.7% (previous +0.5%)

(Note that the BOJ target for core CPI is 2%, if the analysts are correct that target will not be approached, keeping the BOJ set on loose policy ahead).

Analysts surveyed expect GDP at -0.8% (annualised) in Q3 (from +0.8% in the prior survey)

  • +5.1% in Q4 (from 4.5%)

(Preliminary third-quarter GDP data is due to be released on November 15)

On the currency:

Nearly 90% of economists polled thought the yen’s recent weakness against its major peers has been mostly beneficial for the economy, despite rises in raw material and energy prices globally.

Hiroshi Ugai, chief Japan economist at JPMorgan Securities.

  • The yen’s depreciation stimulates the economy for now, Ugai said, but coupled with rising energy costs, it could hit smaller firms and households, though that cost is likely manageable.

Eight economist said the damage would exceed the merits when the yen falls below 130

  • Five chose a range of 125-130 yen to the dollar, while eight picked 120-125 yen.