Revisions to forecasts aplenty today, GDP data due tomorrow at 0030 GMT (Wednesday 4 March)
Earlier:
- Westpac lower their GDP forecast for Australia to 0.3%
- AMP's forecast for Australian GDP is 0% with "some risk it could be negative"
ANZ are not so gloomy:
- we expect GDP to have risen 0.7% q/q in Q4.
- annual growth lift to 2.3%, consistent with the RBA's characterization of a "gentle turning point".
- The 0.7% figure is a little stronger than our 0.5% q/q preliminary estimate released last Friday.
- The main new pieces of information since then are stronger than initial expected inventories, profits, and wages, only partly offset by slightly weaker government spending and net exports.
- Private demand looks to have been very weak. We estimate another fall of 0.1% q/q, which would leave annual growth in negative territory at -0.5%. The mainstays of economic growth continue to be public demand and net exports.
Speaking of the RBA - policy announcement due at 0330GMT,
ie. real soon!
