Via eFX comes this from ANZ:
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Investors following seasonal strategies should consider selling GBP in November, advises Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ).
“Figure 1 shows how G10 and AXJ currencies have performed during the month of October over the 2000 – 2013 period. Among the G10 currencies, GBP has shown the highest tendency to depreciate against the USD, falling in 10 out of the last 14 years during November. However, the average percent spot loss is not large at 0.5%,” ANZ finds out.
As such, ANZ advises investors looking for the strongest seasonal pattern in November to consider pairing GBP with CHF (selling GBP/CHF).
“The depreciation in GBP is amplified when paired up against CHF, with this cross falling in 11 out of the last 14 years for an average spot decline of 1.0%,” ANZ clarifies.
On the macro perspective, ANZ also expects any GBP upside to be limited in the near-term
“The BoE has become more dovish due to rising short-term risks to growth emanating from Europe and slowing inflation. Rates market pricing for the BoE’s first interest rate hike has been pushed out to Q2. This will keep upside in sterling capped in the near term,”ANZ projects.
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