A preview of all the numbers that hint at the results of the April 2019 non-farm payrolls report
The US employment report is due at 8:30 am ET on Friday, May 3, 2019:
- Median NFP estimate 190K (185k private)
- March 196K
- Highest estimate 250k
- Lowest estimate 120k
- Average estimate 190.6K
- Standard deviation 24.1k
- Prior participation rate 63.0%
- Underemployment U6 prior 7.3%
- Avg hourly earnings y/y exp 3.3% y/y vs 3.2% prior
- Avg hourly earnings m/m exp +0.3% vs +0.1% prior
- Avg weekly hours exp 34.5 vs 34.5 prior
Here's the April jobs story so far
- ADP 275K vs 151K prior (180K expected)
- ISM non-manufacturing employment not yet released
- ISM manufacturing employment 52.4 vs 57.5 prior
- Initial jobless claims 4 wk avg 212.5K vs 213.5K prior
- Claims during reference week 230.0K
- April Consumer confidence jobs hard to get 13.3 vs 13.8 prior
- Conference board help wanted online demand for hiring not yet released
- February JOLTS 7087K vs 7625k prior
There isn't a strong focus on either the jobs or the inflation numbers in this report but the market is jittery right now so I suspect the risks are towards a miss on headline jobs. But how much risk is there? It's modest. The market isn't going to start freaking out about one jobs report with unemployment still below 4%.
