April is the month with some of the strongest seasonal patterns of the year. We take a look at some of the seasonal patterns that stand out in the forex market and elsewhere.
#5: April is when dollar bears come out of hibernation
The average decline in the Dollar Index is April is 1.1%, the worst of any month.
The dollar is weak almost right across the board but one exception is USD/JPY. There is no seasonal trend in the pair but there is a pattern – it’s often a volatile month.
One thing that makes we worry about this trend is the breakdown in the old risk trade. April is a great month for risk trades and the ‘buy risk, sell USD (or JPY) trade’ isn’t what it used to be.
