It's still early in the quarter
From the Atlanta Fed:
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2021 is4.6 percenton February 5, down from 6.0 percent on February 1. After Monday's GDPNow update and subsequent releases from the U.S. Census Bureau, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures and first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 2.2 percent and 22.2 percent, respectively, to 1.5 percent and 18.2 percent, respectively, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to first-quarter real GDP growth decreased from -0.61 percentage points to -0.74 percentage points.
The consensus for Q1 in the US is -0.7% so there's a big divergence here.
