Reserve Bank of Australia August monetary policy meeting minutes are due at 0130GMT
They have been superseded somewhat by recent (last week) testimony from RBA Governor Lowe to the parliament:
- RBA's Lowe: We are prepared to intervene in AUD, not at the moment
- More from RBA's Lowe: Does not expect full employment for at least 2.5 years
- More from RBA's Lowe (in the Q&A): Should be able to increase wages at >3%y/y
- Q&A for RBA's Lowe now: Expects gradual pick up in capex outside resources
- RBA's Lowe: Global economy has strengthened
And also by the recent (August 4) Statement on Monetary Policy (SoMP): RBA says further rise in AUD would lower economic growth, inflation
Indeed, a preview I've seen via Westpac says the same:
- The RBA minutes are likely to reflect the recently communicated SoMP and Governor Lowe's parliamentary testimony.
Ditto from ANZ:
- The RBA minutes should be relatively uneventful, as the SOMP and Lowe's Testimony have already provided some colour on the RBA's take on the outlook.
National Australia Bank on the minutes:
- They are unlikely to add too much more given the Governor's comprehensive grilling at today's Parliamentary Testimony and the recently released August Statement on Monetary Policy.
- In the Testimony, the Governor noted "current market pricing implies greater probability of a rate rise than a rate reduction, it also implies that the next move in interest rates is a long way out...I think they're both reasonable assumptions".
- Dr Lowe also noted that employment growth has been stronger of late, though "it is likely to be some time before we reach what could be considered full employment in Australia."
- Going forward, it will be important to monitor the labour market's track towards full employment.
- The RBA will likely begin to remove policy accommodation before the economy approaches full employment.
TD Securities has a different view:
- Usually the Board minutes that are released after the semi-annual monetary policy testimony are irrelevant and out of date, however, after last month's horror, the markets will be pouring over the details, just in case.
ASB with more (bolding mine)
- The Reserve Bank of Australia's August Board Minutes will probably be a nonevent, given that they follow the Statement of Monetary Policy. And given the furore in the July Minutes with the paragraph around the neutral cash rate, the RBA will want to sound as neutral as possible.
- That said, the Minutes might contain a more detailed discussion on the AUD given there was more in the Governor's Statement in August on the exchange rate than in previous months.
From RAN's weekly preview, which includes a look ahead to important data from Australia due later this week:
- In Australia early focus will fall on the release of the minutes from the RBA's most recent monetary policy decision ... The statement which accompanied the decision noted that economic activity will be slower if AUD continues to appreciate, and since then RBA Governor Lowe has noted that the Bank stands ready to intervene in the FX market if it deems fit (it doesn't at present). The minutes will be supplemented by speeches RBA members Kent (on Monday) and Ellis (on Thursday). Thursday will also bring the release of the Australian labour market report from July. Analysts expect that the labour force added 20,000 roles, with the unemployment and participation rates seen steady at 5.6% and 65.0% respectively. ANZ suggest that "while the labour market numbers have been particularly strong over recent months, ongoing solid growth in job ads and elevated business conditions suggest that the strength is likely to continue in the near term."