Australian GDP data for Q4 of 2016
+1.1% q/q ... beat, and a huge rebound from the Q3 result
- expected +0.8% q/q, prior -0.5%
And +2.4% y/y ... beat
- expected +2.0% y/y, prior +1.9%, revised up from +1.8%
Some early responses seen:
- 'shattering expectations'
More:
- Q4 household savings ratio 5.2%
Q4 household spending +0.9% q/q
Some quick responses (collated by Reuters, bolding mine):
CBA
- "So the third quarter dip was only a pothole after all and not the end of the world. There's not a lot to complain about in these numbers, with a bounce in consumer spending the big surprise. The main story is the boost to incomes from export prices. Nominal GDP rose 3 percent alone, the sort of result you only saw at the peak of the mining boom. That change to the dynamic for national income is great for profits and tax receipts, and maybe some will even trickle down to workers. It should also give the ratings agencies pause for thought."
JP Morgan
- "Consumption was strong, the rest of the pieces were pretty much as expected, but the upside surprise was consumption. It obviously means the total number was quite a bit better than expected. "More consumption is always going to be better than less, I guess. In terms of the outlook, how that increase in consumption was funded, it was on drawing down the savings rate and you can't do that forever. "It's going to be an upside surprise [for the RBA], I would say a welcome upside surprise for them."
I'll post more on the result, responses as they come in on a separate post.
