A quick preview look ahead at the home loans data Thursday 11 July 2019.
A topside surprise for this should be AUD supportive. The housing sector (construction and related) of the economy has felt a negative impact from the fall in home prices. If confidence returns to the sector it'll be a positive for the economy. I suspect a downside surprise will not impact as much as recent indicators (after May) have given small glimmers of recovery:
- The data for May approvals will not reflect the full benefits the sector has perceived for the Federal election (held May 18) and none of the June RBA rate cut (and July!)
The headline 'home loan' figure:
- expected -1.0% m/m, prior -1.1%
