Coming up at 0130GMT, Labour market report
- Employment Change: expected 15.0K, prior 4.6K
- Unemployment Rate: 5.0% expected %, prior 4.9%
- Full Time Employment Change: prior was -7.3K
- Part Time Employment Change: prior was 11.9K
- Participation Rate: expected 65.6%, prior was 65.6%
Its been an up and down week for the AUD on data and releases. It dropped on the RBA minutes on Tuesday. It popped Wednesday on the better China data. Its almost as if the week has been a summary of the forces acting on the AUD - domestically there are worries aplenty, high debt, slow wage growth, slow growth, and more, while jobs growth has been a bright spot. Externally, the improvement in China, as stimulus efforts have impacted, have been a positive for the AUD.
Today the focus switches back to domestic data. A disappointment on the jobs report will be a negative for the AUD, and vice versa.
Greg had this moments ago:
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A couple of what to expects ...
ANZ:
- After the 5k rise in employment in February, we expect another modest rise in jobs of 10k. While the leading indicators of the labour market have diverged a little over recent months, together they point to a modest slowdown in employment growth.
- We expect the unemployment rate to tick back up to 5.0% after printing at 4.9% in February.
NAB:
- NAB expects the unemployment rate to be marginally higher, increasing from 4.9% to 5.0%. Lower surveyed capacity utilisation and falling job ads point to the risk of higher unemployment, but this has been the case for some time.
- We expect decent employment growth of 25k after last month's weak print of 5k. Such an outcome would be broadly consistent with the circa 20k per month growth suggested by the NAB Survey employment index.
ASB add "The near-term direction of the unemployment rate will drive the next move in the official cash rate. "
