Westpac Leading Index is barely changed on the month in June 2018
Comes in at a blink at you'll miss it gain of 0.01% to 97.77
- May was -0.23%, revised by -0.01 from -0.22%
Should be renamed the hair splitting index this month. Sheesh.
This is one of my go to indicators for the Australian economy, its meant to show how the economy will develop for the next 6 to 9 months. Given its performance its a wee bit of a worry ….
Westpac (summary) comments on their index, wary but waiting for confirmation:
- The six month annualised growth rate in the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, dropped from +0.05% in May to -0.33% in June.
- This is the first below trend reading since September last year and the weakest index growth rate since July 2017.
- The Leading Index growth rate has now slowed by just over 1ppt since the start of the year, swinging from a comfortably above trend pace to back below trend.
- We will need further confirmation of this below trend movement to be comfortable that the Index has now shifted to a below trend signal for the growth outlook for the remainder of 2018 and into 2019.
- Certainly that below trend profile for the remainder of 2018 and 2019 accords with Westpac's current growth forecasts.
This data does not usually have an immediate forex impact
