Australian GDP data for the October to December quarter is due today

  • the median consensus expected is 0.5% q/q (mean is around 0.54%)
  • prior was 0.6%
  • (for the y/y 2.5% expected and 2.8% prior)

But ...

On Monday and Tuesday this week we got some inputs into the GDP number (not all of them), which were on the whole weaker than expected.

The survey of economists/analysts that the consensus expected is based on was conducted over the past week, and only some of those surveyed have submitted estimates updated with Monday and Tuesday data (as of me checking anyway).

The estimates dated 6 March have an average (mean) of 0.45% while those dated prior to the 6th have a mean of 0.59%.

That's quite a big difference, draw your own conclusions. The conclusion I am drawing is that headline 'expected' we are reading on economic calendars is too high based on the 'partial' results seen Monday and Tuesday.

I'll be back with more on the GDP and what to expect for the Australian dollar. Greg posted this earlier: