The monthly employment report from oz Australia coming up at 0130GMT on Thursday 18 September 2019
A few snippets.
Via ASB/CBA:
- Leading indicators suggest a reasonable level of jobs growth should continue. We expect a 20k lift in the number of jobs and the unemployment rate should remain steady at 5.2%.
BNZ:
- We continue to expect another 25bps rate cut in November, but the labour market report Thursday could tip the balance to October if it comes in much weaker than expected
Daiwa:
- labour market report, which is expected to show a further modest increase in employment in August to leave the unemployment rate unchanged at 5.2% for the fifth consecutive month, still considerably higher than the RBA's central estimate of the equilibrium rate (4½%)
NAB:
- expect unemployment to edge up to 5.3% and employment growth to increase at a slower rate of 17k in the month
- Unemployment has increased from a multi-year low of 4.9% in February, but has been unchanged at 5.2% since April. We expect unemployment to tick up given ongoing weakness in private-sector activity, which was evident in the Q2 national accounts, below-average business conditions, and renewed weakness in job ads
- Employment growth has been strong, up 41k in July and with monthly growth averaging about 30k over recent months. We expect a more moderate increase of 17k in August, reflecting leading indicators continuing to point to slower growth, with the NAB survey measure of employment conditions, job ads and job vacancies all turning down
RBA is watching the jobs report indeed.
