October - December quarter CPI from Australia, , due at 0030 GMT. Earlier previews:
- Australian Q4 inflation data due today - previews
- 2 bank previews here
- Westpac on the degree of risk to their Australian inflation forecast
- We just had the NZ Q4 CPI data, Australia's is due next week - what are the implications?
- CBA: Tame inflation outlook to remain
This via Westpac:
The September quarter CPI came in broadly as we expected printing 0.6%qtr compared to Westpac's forecast of 0.7%.
- The market median was 0.8%.
- The annual rate moderated to 1.8%yr compared to 1.9%yr in Q2 and 2.1% in Q1.
- The average of the core measures, which are seasonally adjusted and exclude extreme moves, rose just 0.4%qtr and, in annual terms, was flat on Q2 at 1.9%yr.
With a solid bump up from tobacco, auto fuel & domestic holidays but not much else, Westpac's forecast for the headline CPI is 0.8%qtr lifting the annual pace from 1.8%yr to 2.1%yr.
- Core inflation is forecast to print 0.5%qtr (0.54% at two decimal places) lifting the annual rate to 2.0%yr.
- The trimmed mean is forecast to rise 0.52%, while the weighted median forecast is 0.57%.
![](http://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20180130/westpac-cpi-preview.png)
Via HSBC:
- Higher petrol prices and a lower exchange rate are expected to support a slight lift in headline inflation back to the bottom of the RBA's 2-3% target band.
- However, underlying inflation measures are expected to be slightly more subdued.
- Beyond energy costs and tobacco excise increases, inflation pressures remain limited and there are ongoing deflationary effects in areas such as food and clothing retailing and communication services.
Via National Australia Bank:
- all-important Q4 CPI on Wednesday
- NAB is forecasting headline inflation of 0.75% q/q (2.1% y/y), a touch above market expectations (0.7% q/q).
- NAB expects core rates of inflation of 0.45% q/q (TM: 1.9% y/y, WM:1.8% y/y), broadly in line with market and RBA forecasts
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