The October to December quarter CPI is due at 0030 GMT from Australia. Earlier previews here:
- 2 bank previews here
- Westpac on the degree of risk to their Australian inflation forecast
- We just had the NZ Q4 CPI data, Australia's is due next week - what are the implications?
- CBA: Tame inflation outlook to remain
This now via ANZ (in brief, bolding mine):
The Q4 print will incorporate the 17th series, with updated weights and several methodological changes.
- The changes all weigh on inflation and mean there is a higher-than-normal degree of uncertainty around the forecasts.
Fuel, tobacco and domestic airfares will boost headline inflation, while we see core inflation as broadly stable.
Retail prices continue to feel the impact of competitive forces, while weak growth also contributes to the low inflation environment
This via Nomura (in brief, bolding mine):
- We forecast a 0.7% q-o-q rise in Q4 headline CPI inflation, but a more subdued 0.3% q-o-q rise in the trimmed, or core, measure.
- Headline inflation should be pushed higher by sharp gains in volatile and tax-impacted items such as fuel, electricity and tobacco, despite fierce retail competition from Amazon's arrival in Q4 and "Black Friday" sales in November which should hold down a range of related prices.
- We also note the weaker-than-expected Q4 CPI inflation reading in New Zealand, including for tradable goods prices, which came in despite a fall in the currency.
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