Australian trade balance data due today – preview 2

I posted an earlier preview here:

• Australian trade balance data due today - preview

Data due at 0130GMT July 4 2018

Trade balance for May 2018

• expected AUD +1200m, prior AUD + 977m

This via NAB, looking for a surplus well below the median estimates (bolding mine):

NAB expecting a narrowing of the trade surplus, to $600m.

• While LNG and iron ore exports are expected to rise, we also expect coal and rural exports to have declined in May.
• Coal port loadings have declined modestly in May, while rural goods exports have been on the decline for some months now as less favourable harvests impact.
• In addition, higher oil prices will likely boost imports, which will further reduce the trade surplus, though there'll be some LNG offset in the months ahead, driven by the contract price links to rising oil prices