Trade Balance for July due at the same time as the retail sales data, 0130GMT

For the trade balance,

  • expected is a surplus of AUD 1bn
  • prior month's surplus was 856m AUD

Greg earlier: Forex technical analysis: AUDUSD will need to weather it's own storm of data

More previews ...

Via ANZ:

  • We expect the trade surplus to remain broadly unchanged at AUD850m in July.
  • While commodity prices have recovered, we see some offsetting move in volumes in July.

And, via Westpac:

Australia's trade balance has been in surplus in seven of the past eight months.

  • For July, we expect the surplus to widen from $0.86bn to$1.4bn, an improvement of $550mn

Export earnings are forecast to rise by 0.8%, $250mn.

  • Gains in iron ore (higher prices) and coal (volumes) offset slippage in LNG (disruptions) and gold (off a high base)

The import bill declines by an anticipated 1%, $300mn,as prices fall in association with a stronger currency.

  • The Australian dollar made solid gains in the month, up 3%against the US dollar and +2.5% on a TWI weighted basis.

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For the AUD ... the main focus will be on retail sales, but having said that a surprise here will also impact