I posted earlier:
This now via Barclays:
NFP:
- We look for headline July nonfarm payrolls to increase 175k; private payrolls to rise 170k;
- and the unemployment rate to decline one-tenth to 4.3%, reversing last month's rise.
- We expect average weekly hours to hold steady at 34.5
- and average hourly earnings to rise 0.3% m/m (2.4% y/y).
- The May and June employment reports were distorted due to seasonality around the timing of the survey week, which suppressed employment growth in May but boosted it in June. July employment should, in our view, give a fairly clean look at the underlying rate of hiring. Our forecast is in line with the average pace of hiring this year.
Trade balance:
- We forecast the nominal trade deficit will narrow $2.5bn, to $44.0bn, in June.
- The advance goods trade balance report showed the goods deficit narrowing by a similar amount in June, and we expect this to carry through into the overall balance. We expect exports to be up 1.0% m/m while imports decline 0.3% m/m.
And, HSBC:
NFP:
- The average monthly increase in nonfarm payrolls in the first half of 2017 was 180,000. Retail employment growth has slowed this year, but many other key industries continue to create jobs at a steady pace.
- We forecast nonfarm payrolls increased by 175,000 in July.
- Wage growth has picked up only modestly in recent years, even as the unemployment rate has continued to fall. We forecast a 0.3% m-o-m rise in average hourly earnings in July. The year-on-year rate could slip to 2.4%, down from 2.5% in June.
- We forecast the unemployment rate fell to 4.3% in July from 4.4% in June.
