The firm previously estimated a no-deal outcome to be at 20%
The latest change was communicated by the firm's G10 FX strategist, Parisha Saimbi. Previously, the firm assigned a 15% probability to Brexit being revoked and a 65% probability for a deal being passed in parliament. I reckon they likely trimmed the latter in favour of a no-deal outcome in their latest change here.
BNPP isn't the only firm revising their Brexit outcome odds this week as more firms are of the view that a no-deal outcome is increasingly likely.
Yesterday, we saw JP Morgan raising their no-deal probability from 15% to 25% while lowering chances of a deal being passed from 35% to just 15%. At the same time, the firm raised the odds of a further Brexit extension to 60% - I reckon this is largely due to the fact that a new prime minister will take over.
Meanwhile, Danske Bank also published their latest odds as such:
