A recap of the events since yesterday
- UK opposition party leaders agree to stop no-deal Brexit by legislation
- UK opposition parties agree to stop no-deal Brexit - statement
- UK govt spokesman: Working to find creative solutions to Irish border
- UK PM Johnson: Had positive and substantive conversation with EU Juncker
- Irish FM Coveney: Alternative arrangements being discussed do not do same as the backstop
In essence, there are two separate stories playing out at the moment. The first being UK opposition parties banding together in an effort to try and stop Boris Johnson from pursuing a no-deal outcome.
The second is Boris Johnson looking to convince European leaders of a new deal with alternative arrangements to the backstop - the main sticking point in this entire Brexit ordeal for the past twelve months.
The former is also tied to the latter, in the sense that UK opposition parties don't have the confidence that a new deal is coming and with Johnson's hard line of leaving by 31 October, they fear he'll be willing to crash out of the European Union without a deal.
Despite all the headlines yesterday, the one that matters most in my view is by Irish foreign minister, Simon Coveney. Just be reminded that the way that the European Union functions is that all it takes is one member to veto the deal and it all falls apart.
In this case, Ireland is not backing down and the European Union - as per formality in the past - will respect that decision and side with Ireland in order to present a united front.
As such, I just don't see a way forward between both sides until one of them are willing to move their red lines. In this instance, Boris Johnson is playing hardball and wants the Irish camp to budge on theirs. That's a really tough ask, highly improbable.
As for today, the UK's Brexit "sherpa" David Frost is set to visit Brussels in search of a backstop solution but it's tough to imagine any major breakthrough given the circumstances above.
That's the risk for the pound in the days ahead before parliament reconvenes next week.
Sure, there may still be lots more optimistic headlines about a "rhetorical shift" in the European Union's stance and ongoing talks about a backstop alternative. However, without any concrete proposals, I just don't see the optimism lasting the course as we navigate through things over the next few weeks.
UK opposition parties may find it tough to gather a majority to stop Boris Johnson as well but I reckon there's still a strong likelihood of a Brexit delay followed by a general election. Otherwise, no-deal Brexit it is.
