Barclays conduct a regular survey, the "Barclays Brexit Investor Survey"
I don't know if this got a run during the UK session, if it did .... well here I go again!
In (very) brief:
- investors are now expecting significant delays in the negotiation process
- majority of respondents do not expect a transition deal to be agreed until October or later with negotiations over the outline of the future relationship likely to continue beyond the March 2019 deadline
More:
Investors' view on the economic outlook has been stable over the past three months
- The inflation outlook adjusted marginally higher over the medium term, while recessionary risks are perceived to remain low
The proportion of investors expecting a rate hike in H1 continues to increase following the recent MPC communiqué.
- However, the majority of investors still see H2 18 as most likely for the next hike. The market is currently pricing an 80% probability of a May hike, while the August meeting is now fully priced in the rates market.
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I can't say I am surprised investors are expecting no finality to this before the apparent deadline of March 2019. Its a dog's breakfast (that is Australian for mess).
