There's going to be a vote on a no-deal Brexit outcome later
But it is almost a given that parliament will vote that down before proceeding to a vote to extend Article 50 tomorrow, and that is very much expected to pass. But where does that leave us?
Well, the first hurdle to get a Brexit extension after tomorrow's vote is that it must be approved by EU27 members. The real worry here is that it only takes one member to veto the option and it all crumbles into pieces. Though chances are that the process will be a formality, but you can't rule out the risks associated to it.
Thereafter, there's a host of possible outcomes that this could play out. Among the more likely ones are a second referendum, a renegotiated Brexit deal, or May pushing forward with another vote on her deal (which can't be improved on as claimed by the European Union).
Besides that, the less enticing options are another election, a vote of no confidence being tabled against the government, or a no-deal Brexit coming back into the picture. Of these three options, the prospects of an election far outweighs the other two considering that Labour itself is rather fragmented at this point.
h/t @ qz | Quartz
It's certainly a headache to consider all of the different options but in short, just know that a Brexit extension now looks to be pushing the UK towards either a second referendum or some renegotiated deal. However, I wouldn't be surprised if May continues to push her agenda and we get a third meaningful vote in the coming weeks/months.
That sentiment should keep the pound supported in the bigger picture but knowing the quagmire that is the UK parliament, you never really know what to expect. The only thing certain is that we're headed for more uncertainty in the coming days/weeks before the first key deadline of 29 March descends upon us.
Anyway, baby steps. Let's prepare for the no-deal Brexit vote later first. The expectation here is that it is going to be a shoe-in that it will fail, but wasn't the same said about the Brexit referendum back in 2016?
