Canada February 2019 monthly GDP data:
- Prior was +0.3%
- GDP +1.1% y/y vs +1.4% expected
- Prior y/y reading was +1.6%
Estimates ranged from -0.2% to +0.1%. There was a bit of give-back here after a surprisingly strong January reading (it was at +0.3% vs 0.0% expected).
Some details:
- Mining and quarrying excluding oil and gas -4.4%
- Oil and gas extraction -0.6%
- Transportation and warehousing -1.6% -- largest decline since June 2011 (this was due to a rail line closure and poor weather)
- Finance and insurance -0.6% after two monthly increases
- Manufacturing -0.4% vs +2.1% in Jan
- Utilities +1.5% on cold weather
- Construction +0.2%
Overall, this report isn't as bad as it appears even though the reading is more like -0.15% than -0.1%. The sharp drop in metals mining will turn around in the months ahead on better global demand and unlocking transportation.
Overall, it's not a great economy but it's not a recession either. Somewhere between the +1.2% BOC estimate and the +1.6% consensus sounds about right.
