Canadian trade balance data for July 2021:
- Prior was +$3.23B
- Exports $53.75B vs $53.76B prior -- record high
- Imports $52.97B vs $50.53B prior
Statistics Canada's first estimate of July GDP was a big disappointment and this will add to the drag. The good news is that the miss came on a 4.2% rise in imports and two-thirds of that was motor vehicles and parts, which will add to production and will be re-exported. I would expect a solid bounce back in Aug-Sept.
On the exports side, forestry products fell 12.7% with lumber -23.6% on falling prices. Without that, exports would have risen 2.0%. There's more of that in the pipeline with lumber prices falling further in August.
