The Canadian jobs report for June 2018
Prior was -7.5K
Full time jobs +9.1K vs +30.0K expected (-31K prior)
Part time +22.7K vs -10.0K expected (+23K prior)
Participation rate 65.5% vs 65.4% expected (65.3% prior)
Unemployment rate 6.0% vs 5.8% expected (5.8% prior)
Hourly earnings permanent employees +3.5% vs +3.9% prior
USD/CAD traded at 1.3132 ahead of the data and immediately dropped in part due to USD weakness on non-farm payrolls. At first, the Canadian report looks strong but there was a jump in the unemployment rate (albeit on rising participation) along with softer wage data.
Hourly earnings among permanent employees:
Looking at overall jobs, the 31.8K is a solid number but it comes after a couple of weak reports. The four-month moving average is weaker than it was for most of last year.
Overall, this is a pretty good report and solidifies a Bank of Canada hike next week. At the moment, USD/CAD is a bit slow to slide because of the broader volatility but a USD slump could be brewing.
