Canada June 2021 GDP and Q2 GDP
- May GDP was -0.3% (revised to -0.5%)
- Estimates ranged from +0.5% to 0.8%
- Prelim reading was +0.7% for June
- Q2 GDP -1.1% vs +2.5% expected
- Q1 GDP was 5.6%
- GDP q/q -0.3% vs +1.4% prior
- July prelim estimate -0.4%
- GDP y/y vs +0.33% prior
- Q2 GDP implicit price index +2.2% q/q vs +3.0% q/q prior
- Quarterly report
This is a big miss on the quarterly data, indicating a surprise contraction. Moreover, the sharp rebound in July doesn't appear to have materialized, despite reopening.
The report cites substantial declines in home resale activities (-17.7%) and exports (-4.0%) for the decline in Q2.
Quarterly numbers:
- Household spending +0.1%
- Final domestic demand +0.2%
- Business investment in machinery +5.7%
Part of the story here is the global shortage of semi-conductors, which weighed both on auto sales and auto exports.
The monthly report (which is GDP by industry) paints a better picture with activity now just 1.5% below February's pre-pandemic level and 15 of 20 industrial sectors expanding. However the surprise July decline comes on falling manufacturing, construction and retail trade.
USD/CAD is higher after the report to 1.2607 from 1.2585 beforehand.
