The official, NBS, PMIs out earlier were all misses.

As is this private survey. Comes in at 50.2 for April:

  • expected 50.9, prior 50.8

ICYMI (I've only posted the info a billion-odd times) this survey is a different to the official PMI survey. Is weighted more heavily towards smaller firms whereas the official survey has higher representation of the gargantuan SOEs.

A rundown via Dr. Zhengsheng Zhong, Director of Macroeconomic Analysis at CEBM Group:

  • The Caixin China General Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index eased to 50.2 in April, down from a recent high of 50.8 in the previous month, indicating a slowing expansion in the manufacturing sector.
  • 1) The subindex for new orders fell slightly despite remaining in expansionary territory. The gauge for new export orders returned to contractionary territory, suggesting cooling overseas demand.
  • 2) The output subindex dropped. The employment subindex returned to negative territory after hitting a 74-month high in March. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the surveyed urban unemployment rate remained at a relatively high level despite edging down in March, suggesting that pressure on the job market remained.
  • 3) While the subindex for stocks of purchased items returned to contractionary territory, the measure for stocks of finished goods fell more markedly. The gauge for future output edged up, pointing to manufacturers' desire to produce and stable product demand. The subindex for suppliers' delivery times rose further despite staying in negative territory, implying improvement in manufacturers' capital turnover.
  • 4) Both gauges for output charges and input costs edged down. There were only small changes in upward pressure on industrial product prices. We predict that April's producer price index is likely to remain basically unchanged from the previous month.
  • In general, China's economy showed good resilience in April, yet it stabilized on a weak foundation and is not coming to an upward turning point. The Politburo meeting signalled that in the first quarter of this year China had adjusted its countercyclical policy marginally. As pressure on the economy

more to come