CPI and PPI data coming up from China today, due at 0130GMT - previews below

China inflation data for July

  • CPI expected 1.5%, prior 1.5%
  • PPI expected 5.6%, prior 5.5%

HSBC:

  • We expect CPI inflation to have remained subdued in July, at 1.5% y-o-y, unchanged from June.
  • Food prices likely continued to contract, but at a slower pace, while core inflation likely remained sticky.
  • A small upward adjustment to oil prices by the NDRC and rising output prices in the latest PMI reading, however, could pose some upside risks to our headline forecast.
  • Meanwhile, a sharper increase in input prices in the latest PMI indicates that producer prices could have expanded at a slightly faster pace in y-o-y terms.
  • We expect PPI to rise to 5.6% y-o-y in July compared with 5.5% y-o-y in June.

Barclays:

  • We expect CPI inflation to remain subdued at 1.5% on continued food deflation, and PPI inflation to edge higher to 5.8% given the strong rebound in PMI input prices.

TD Securities:

  • We are mixed compared with consensus. We already know pork price deceleration troughed in May, and other food price inflation remains buoyant, so we are a little higher than mkt for CPI.
  • We see slight PPI downside as it stubbornly refused to slide along with oil prices in recent months. Oil has since rebounded, one to watch for the August print.