China September activity data: Industrial production 3.1% y/y (expected 4.5%)

China September activity data

Industrial Production 3.1% y/y

• expected: 4.5%, previous: 5.3%
• steel output -21.2% y/y in September and to its lowest since March of 2018

Retail Sales 4.4% y/y

• expected: 3.3%, previous: 2.5%

Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) 7.3% y/y

• expected: 7.9%. previous: 8.9%
• YTD property investment is +8.8% y/y, infrastructure investment +1.5% y/y

Unemployment rate in September 4.9% vs. 5.1% expected and prior of 5.1%

While data is coming out coal futures are rocketing higher, iron ore still slumping.

At the same time as this activity data was the Q3 GDP data where I posted:

• Q3 saw a renewed round of COVID-19 outbreaks and restrictions, supply chain bottlenecks and a relatively tight PBOC policy stance.

All of those applied in September also, contributing to slow industrial production. The better retail sales data though is encouraging for domestic demand.

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Adding in YTD, that is January - September, numbers for the above:

• Retail sales up 16.4% YoY
• Value-added industrial output up 11.8% YoY