UK consumer data continues to struggle heading into Q2
Greg had the April data release by the BRC earlier here. Same store sales fell 4.2% y/y while total retail sales fell by 3.1% y/y. Those are some awful readings. Yes, the timing of Easter (early April) may have something to do with it, but just how much can you attribute the fall to that will be the real question.
While the data point is not a major one, it builds into the retail sales data that will be released later this month on 24 May. And given what we've seen here, it doesn't paint a pretty picture for April.
If the BOE is going to shift the timing of its rate hike from May to August, it will have to rely on data to support that case. The soft patch in Q1 may be attributed to bad weather, but early signs in Q2 so far hasn't been all too convincing either. And that won't help the BOE if they signal a potential hike for August later this week, only to run into yet another soft batch of data points and call it off again.
