The ECB meet today, 10 April 2019. Statement is due at 1145GMT, with president Draghi's press conference at 1230GMT.
Earlier previews posted here:
- ECB preview: There are two key issues facing Draghi
- ECB meet this week - preview (SG & WPAC)
- TD preview the ECB policy meeting, point out the bearish risk for the EUR
- RBC on Wednesday meeting instead of Thursday … "that may be the most interesting thing about the meeting"
This now via Daiwa:
- At last month's meeting, the ECB revised down significantly its forecasts for GDP and inflation. And so, the Governing Council amended its forward guidance to make clear that its key interest rates are expected "to remain at their present levels at least through the end of 2019". And it also confirmed its intention to hold a new round of quarterly targeted long-term refinancing operations (TLTRO-III), starting in September 2019 and ending in March 2021. … Other precise details of the TLTROs‑III, including the incentives for credit conditions to remain favourable, were to be announced in due course. However, we do not expect to receive this additional information after the Governing Council meeting, which looks likely to be relatively unenlightening.
- Draghi will no doubt emphasise that the Governing Council remains alive to the downside risks to the economic outlook, but there will probably be no signal of any further action over the near term. Nevertheless, in the post-meeting press conference, Draghi will likely be probed about his statement in his Frankfurt speech in late March, that "if necessary" the ECB would consider measures to "preserve the favourable implications of negative rates for the economy while mitigating the side effects", which suggested that the Governing Council could at some point introduce a tiered interest rate system on similar lines to those conducted by the BoJ and SNB if the deposit rate was sustained at the current level or below throughout next year or beyond.
(Bolding mine … the presser is likely to be more lively than the statement. As noted in the other previews, linked above, Draghi the wildcard … how dovish will he be?)