It's central bank bonanza today!
Good day, everyone! Hope you're all doing well as we gear up for Super Thursday in markets. The key story so far has been a recovery in risk sentiment as US and China prepare for yet another round of trade talks, fueling optimism across asset classes. In the currencies space, the aussie has been the main beneficiary in all of this - also backed by strong jobs report earlier.
0600 GMT - Germany August final CPI figures
0645 GMT - France August final CPI figures
Preliminary figures can be found here and here respectively. As these are final figures, they're largely not going to have any impact on the market but may have some bearings on the euro in anticipation of what the ECB might comment regarding the inflation outlook later in the day.
0715 GMT - Switzerland August producer and import prices
Prior report can be found here. A rough gauge of inflationary pressures in the Swiss economy, not a major release by any means.
1100 GMT - CBRT September monetary policy decision
The second of the key emerging market central banks to announce a decision this week. Argentina's central bank announced no change on Tuesday, which led to a bit of a decline in the ARS thereafter. Turkey is expected to hike rates though, but the question will be by how much? I reckon anything less than 300 bps will fail to halt the lira's decline in the bigger picture, but let's see what sort of language they will present in the statement later as well.
1100 GMT - BOE September monetary policy decision
No change is expected in the BOE's decision today and the market is only anticipating a possible rate hike to come in May next year. Between now and then, there is still plenty of data to navigate through and so far there isn't anything to suggest the BOE should move faster or slower. The key sticking point in markets now is Brexit and it's likely the only thing worth noting from today's BOE statement is their views on Brexit.
1145 GMT - ECB September monetary policy decision/statement
Similary, the ECB is expected to announce no change in rates and forward guidance. That is the key thing as asset purchases are much expected to wind down into year-end already. Other than that, there isn't much else to give and take from the central bank decision here so it'll all depend on how Draghi wants to communicate all of this in his press conference later.
1230 GMT - ECB president Draghi press conference
As Draghi speaks, he will also be highlighting on the ECB's latest economic growth and inflation forecasts. The growth forecasts are expected to be revised a little lower while the inflation outlook is expected to remain unchanged. Depending on how he chooses to play the cards at hand, that will determine the reaction in the euro. But historically, he has a knack for knocking down the single currency so far this year.
At 1145 GMT, European Commissioner Oettinger will also be speaking with Italian lawmakers on the country's budget so that is something that may garner a few headlines. That's all for the session ahead, I wish you all the best of days and good luck with your trading!
