German inflation in focus with thin holiday trading set to prevail
Good day, everyone! Hope you're all doing well as we look to get things going in the session ahead. It has been quite the busy start to proceedings with markets moving on different themes playing out since the Asia Pacific morning.
Risk got a bit of a nudge lower with the aussie notably weaker after Trump signed off on the HK bill. It was very much a formality though but expect China to retaliate with some fighting words over the next few days.
The key in all of this is whether or not they can keep the issue separate from trade talks and so far it looks like they are able to; for a "Phase One" deal at least.
Meanwhile, the pound got a kick higher after the YouGov MRP poll showed a sizable majority for Boris Johnson's Conservatives. I'd still hint at more caution though as other opinion polls have been showing a narrowing lead over the past few days.
Besides, as mentioned yesterday, the YouGov MRP poll only has a sample size of one - the 2017 election - so who's to know if it is really that accurate of a predictor.
Looking ahead, all of these issues will continue to influence the ebb and flow in markets alongside some minor releases from the euro area.
0645 GMT - Switzerland Q3 GDP figures
Prior (Q2) release can be found here. Expectation is for growth to slow a little further in Q3 but remain above flat levels. If anything, it should just reaffirm sluggish growth seen so far this year with things still likely to remain the same in Q4.
0700 GMT - UK November Nationwide house prices data
Prior release can be found here. A general read on housing market conditions in the UK economy. A minor data point.
0800 GMT - Spain November preliminary CPI figures
Prior release can be found here. The more relevant readings to look out for today will be from Germany but this will act as an accompaniment to gauge inflationary pressures in the euro area region towards the end of the year.
0900 GMT - Eurozone October M3 money supply data
Prior release can be found here. An indication of credit conditions in the euro area economy, which have been holding up decently. A minor data point.
1000 GMT - Eurozone November final consumer confidence
1000 GMT - Eurozone November economic, business, industrial confidence
Prior release can be found here. Sentiment has been weakening over the past few months but perhaps with some green shoots seen in the region and a US-China trade truce, the outlook may be a bit better. However, any solid signs of a solid recovery remains far away.
1300 GMT - Germany November preliminary CPI figures
Prior release can be found here. The expectation is for some steadiness in inflationary pressures this month but we will get a glimpse of whether or not that will be the case via the state readings first. As such, the impact of the national release here may be a bit muted.
Also, do be reminded that it is Thanksgiving in the US today so the stock and bond markets will be closed. As such, expect thin liquidity conditions to prevail - even up to the weekend - as traders take some time off amid the hustle and bustle.
I wish you all the best of days to come and good luck with your trading!
