Eurozone March inflation data in focus today
The dollar is keeping slightly firmer as Treasury yields are staying elevated once again. There was a bit of a head fake to the move yesterday, with 10-year yields retreating after threatening to push past 1.75%; but now moving back up to 1.73%.
EUR/USD continues to be pressured lower towards 1.1700 while USD/JPY is on approach towards 111.00 after the breakout yesterday.
Meanwhile, precious metals are coming under notable pressure with gold testing the lows for the month near $1,676 while silver is falling below $24 as yields climb.
Inflation data in Europe is one of the key releases to watch today but in any case, it will do little to impact the ECB's current policy stance - at least for now.
Looking ahead, month-end and quarter-end flows, Biden's infrastructure spending plans, and tomorrow's OPEC+ meeting will be other key things to watch out for.
0600 GMT - UK Q4 final GDP figures
Prior release can be found here. The market focus is more on the outlook for 2H 2021, so this isn't a relevant release. Adding to that is this will be the final readings only.
0600 GMT - UK March Nationwide house prices data
Prior release can be found here. UK house prices are expected to stay elevated as housing market conditions are estimated to keep more robust - especially with the extension of the stamp duty holiday.
0645 GMT - France March preliminary CPI figures
Prior release can be found here. Much like the rest of the region, inflation figures are expected to show a modest uptick amid base effect adjustments. That said, don't expect this to change the ECB stance unless this keeps up well into 2H 2021.
0755 GMT - Germany March unemployment change, rate
Prior release can be found here. General indication of labour market conditions in the German economy but a rather inconsequential release considering that the data has been largely obscured by the short-time work scheme.
0800 GMT - Switzerland March Credit Suisse investor sentiment
Prior release can be found here. The reading measures analysts' expectations on the Swiss economy and other economic expectations over the next 6 months.
0900 GMT - Eurozone March preliminary CPI figures
Prior release can be found here. The annual inflation estimate is expected to creep higher to +1.4% y/y from +0.9% y/y in February but that owes more to base effect adjustments, with the core reading estimated to hold steady at +1.1% y/y. Nonetheless, the more volatile and spiky nature of the readings through 1H 2021 is not going to prompt much attention and reaction by the ECB but we'll see how things go in 2H 2021 - especially in the latter stages - and if such persistent price pressures can keep up.
That's all for the session ahead. I wish you all the best of days to come and good luck with your trading! Stay safe out there.
