Euro area GDP and CPI figures on the agenda today

Things are keeping quieter in the FX space as we get into the final trading day of October. The euro saw modest gains yesterday following the ECB meeting as the market didn't really heed Lagarde's remarks on pushing back on rate expectations.

She said that:

Our analysis certainly does not support that the conditions of our forward guidance are satisfied at the time of liftoff as expected by markets, nor anytime soon thereafter.

However, perhaps the key remark is that she mentioned it wasn't in her place to say exactly whether markets were wrong with their predictions.

That is seeing bond traders push up yields in the region as the market does what it does best in trying to bully central banks into a decision.

Moving away from the focus on the euro, the bond market in general is one of the more interesting spots in trading this week. We're seeing rather significant moves take place with long-end yields sliding and the yield curve flattening on the week.

Some of that has turned again late in trading yesterday and to some degree so far today but it hints that the market is probably trying to say something though for now, it is unclear of what that may be just yet. Adam dived into more details on that here.

I shared some of my thoughts yesterday too as per below:

I would say this says a lot about the market view on the economy, that being even if central banks are to hike rates in the short-term, it may snuff out real inflation and at the same time stifle the economy in the macro picture.Sure, the rate hikes that will come can be reversed, but that just signifies that central banks are floundering all over the place just to keep the economy afloat and not really being able to do much to spur more robust growth conditions.

As such, there are plenty of moving parts at play in the market at the moment - not least with the focus also slowly shifting towards the FOMC meeting next week.

But for today, month-end flows may keep things a little more tricky and messy before a fresh start in the week ahead. There will be quiet a number of notable releases in Europe but none of which that should tell us anything that we don't already know.

0530 GMT - France Q3 preliminary GDP figures

Prior release can be found here. The French economy is estimated to grow a little over 2% in Q3, marking a further improvement to economic conditions after the reopening in Q2. However, there are challenges going into Q4 which will weigh more heavily on growth towards the latter stages of the year.

0645 GMT - France October preliminary CPI figures

Prior release can be found here. Much like elsewhere in the region, French annual consumer inflation is expected to creep higher as price pressures in general continue to stay underpinned going into year-end.

0700 GMT - Spain Q3 preliminary GDP figures

Prior release can be found here. The Spanish economy is estimated to show a solid growth figure in Q3 as conditions pick up after the reopening in Q2. However, a slowdown is likely going into Q4 so that arguably matters more at this stage.

0700 GMT - Switzerland October KOF leading indicator index

Prior release can be found here. The reading measures the future trends of overall economic activity in the Swiss economy.

0800 GMT - Germany Q3 preliminary GDP figures

Prior release can be found here. German growth is estimated to improve to a little over 2% in Q3, though supply bottlenecks have arguably hampered output in the industry sector especially starting from last month. The fear now is that this will translate to a much softer Q4 so that's a thorn in the side despite a fairly decent reading today.

0800 GMT - Italy Q3 preliminary GDP figures

Prior release can be found here. Growth conditions in Italy is expected to slow a little after a more solid rebound in Q2 (one of the better performers), and the outlook isn't exactly brimming with confidence as supply and capacity constraints as well as rising inflation are also arguably weighing on overall conditions going into Q4.

0830 GMT - UK September mortgage approvals, credit data

Prior release can be found here. A general read of credit conditions in the UK economy.

0900 GMT - Eurozone Q3 preliminary GDP figures

Prior release can be found here. Overall euro area growth should keep thereabouts as Q3 reaffirms yet another decent improvement after the reopening in Q2. However, it is all about the anticipated slowdown in Q4 amid the souring outlook now and that is the more pertinent focus when it comes to viewing Eurozone economic conditions.

0900 GMT - Eurozone October preliminary CPI figures

Prior release can be found here. The annual headline inflation is estimated to creep higher once again while the core reading is estimated to keep just below 2% but on the balance of things, that should continue to heap pressure on the ECB in defending their 'transitory' narrative as the year winds down.

That's all for the session ahead. I wish you all the best of days to come and good luck with your trading! Stay safe out there.