Changes is coming
A Bank of England paper is getting some attention today because it chastises economists for underestimating the pace of change in automation and artificial intelligence.
"The potential for simultaneous and rapid disruption, coupled with the breadth of human functions that AI might replicate, may have profound implications for labor markets," BOE staffers Mauricio Armellini and Tim Pike wrote in the Bank Underground post. "Economists should seriously consider the possibility that millions of people may be at risk of unemployment, should these technologies be widely adopted."
They compare the changes to the industrial revolution but say the speed of diffusion will be much higher this time and that creates tremendous risks for society and the economy.
"Advances in robotics might be such that suddenly, most if not all of the basic human functions entailed in manual labour (assembling, lifting, walking, human interaction, etc) could be carried out more effectively and cheaply by machines - with the advantage of being able to work continually at minimal marginal cost," they write.
"Economists looking at previous industrial revolutions observe that none of these risks have transpired. However, this possibly under-estimates the very different nature of the technological advances currently in progress, in terms of their much broader industrial and occupational applications and their speed of diffusion. It would be a mistake, therefore, to dismiss the risks associated with these new technologies too lightly."
